Right then, let’s talk about this whole Premiership top 4 betting lark. Every year, I tell myself I won’t get sucked in too deep, and every year, well, you know how it goes. This time, I thought I’d actually try and put a bit more thought into it, not just throwing a dart at a board.
My Grand Plan (or so I thought)
So, I sat down, cuppa in hand, before the season kicked off. My first instinct, like most folks, was to just jot down the usual suspects. You know the drill: Man City, Liverpool, probably Chelsea, and then maybe Arsenal or Spurs for that fourth spot. Easy peasy, right? Felt like I’d cracked the code before a ball was even kicked.
But then I remembered last season, and the season before that. There’s always one team that surprises everyone, and one big gun that completely bottles it. So, I figured, okay, need to dig a bit deeper than just brand names. It’s not like buying a fancy telly, is it?
Getting Down to Brass Tacks
I started by looking at who actually looked decent in pre-season, though I know, I know, pre-season means nothing. But still, you get a feel for things. Then I checked out the summer signings. Not just the big money moves, but whether they’d actually plugged any gaps. Some teams spend a fortune and end up worse off, it’s mad.
Then I had a think about the managers. Some of these fellas, you just know they’re under pressure from day one. A couple of bad results and they’re out the door. That can mess up a whole season, and your bet along with it. I also glanced at the fixture list for the first few months. A tough start can really knock the stuffing out of a team, and it’s hard to recover.
I didn’t go full geek with spreadsheets and algorithms, mind you. That takes the fun out of it for me. It was more about gut feeling backed up by a bit of common sense. I chatted with a few mates down the pub too, got their harebrained theories. You’d be surprised, sometimes the daftest sounding idea has a nugget of truth in it.
- Looked at squad depth – injuries are a killer.
- Considered if they were in Europe – all those extra games can knacker a team.
- Tried to ignore the media hype around certain teams.
Placing the Bet and the Long Wait
Once I had my four teams, I shopped around a bit online. The odds can vary quite a bit, so it’s worth spending a few minutes clicking about. I didn’t go crazy with the stake, just enough to make it interesting for the season. It’s gotta be fun, not a mortgage payment, eh?
And then the season starts. That’s the best and worst bit. Every weekend, you’re checking the scores, hoping your teams win and the ones just outside the top four slip up. There were weeks I felt like a genius, everything going to plan. Then there were other weeks, usually after some VAR nonsense or a last-minute dodgy penalty, where I wanted to throw my telly out the window.
You see a team go on a great run, and you’re buzzing. Then they lose three on the bounce, and you start doubting everything. “Should’ve picked them!” “Knew he was a rubbish signing!” The usual stuff.
So, How’d It Go?
Well, let’s just say it’s rarely straightforward. I got some right, some spectacularly wrong. One of my “bankers” had a shocking middle part of the season and nearly gave me a heart attack. Another one, a bit of an outsider I’d picked, really surprised everyone and came good. Swings and roundabouts, innit?
The biggest thing I learned? Don’t get too cocky early on, and don’t panic if things go a bit pear-shaped for a few weeks. The Premier League season is a marathon, not a sprint. There’s always twists and turns. And for goodness sake, try and enjoy the football itself, not just whether your bet is coming in. Though, let’s be honest, it’s a lot more fun when it is!
Will I do it again next year? Probably. Am I any wiser? Ask me in May.
