Okay, so folks often ask me how I figure out who the main contenders are for the Tour de France each year. It’s not some secret science, more just a routine I’ve fallen into over the years because I love following the sport.
Starting Early
My process usually kicks off way before July. I start watching the early season races, you know, Paris-Nice, Tirreno-Adriatico, races like that. I’m not looking for winners necessarily, but just trying to get a feel for who’s riding strong, who looks comfortable, who seems to have wintered well. It’s more about observation at this stage.
I pay attention to the guys who are consistently up there, even if they don’t win. Sometimes a strong second or third place early on tells you more than a lucky win. Team strength starts to show even here. You see which teams are working well together.
Getting Serious – The Warm-Ups
Then things get more focused as we get closer to the summer. The Critérium du Dauphiné and the Tour de Suisse are key races I always watch closely. These are like the final dress rehearsals before the big show in July. How riders perform here is usually a pretty good indicator.
What I look for specifically:
- Climbing Form: Can they stay with the best on the big mountain stages? The Tour is often won in the mountains, so this is crucial.
- Time Trialing: How do they look against the clock? A good GC rider usually needs to be decent here, sometimes great.
- Team Support: This is massive. I watch how a potential favorite’s team controls the race, protects their leader, sets pace on climbs. A strong leader with a weak team will struggle. I look at the full team roster when it’s announced.
- Recovery: How do they look day after day? Stage races are grueling. Seeing how they handle back-to-back hard days is important.
Putting It Together
I don’t have a complicated system. Honestly, it’s often just notes scribbled down. I might jot down names, observations like ‘looked strong on final climb’ or ‘team seemed disorganized’. It’s pretty basic. I read cycling news, listen to what riders and directors say, but you learn to take some of that with a grain of salt. Everyone feels ‘good’ before the Tour, right?
Consistency is a big thing I look for. A rider who’s been solid all spring and performs well in the final warm-up races usually gets onto my mental list of favorites. Of course, you always have surprises, guys who come out of nowhere, or favorites who crash or get sick. That’s cycling.
So yeah, that’s pretty much my process. Watching races, paying attention to form and teams, especially in those key pre-Tour events. It helps me get hyped for the race and gives me guys to root for, or against! It’s just part of the fun of being a fan, trying to figure it all out before the flag drops in July.
