Okay, so, I’ve been diving into NFL picks for a while now, and Week 10 looked like a real head-scratcher. I decided to document my whole process this time, just to see if I could improve my hit rate.
Getting Started: Crunching the Numbers
First things first, I grabbed my usual stats sheets. I’ve got this massive Excel file I’ve been building, tracking everything from yards per game to turnover differentials. It’s kinda messy, but it’s my messy.
I spent a good hour just updating the stats with the Week 9 results. Gotta keep that data fresh, you know?
Diving into the Matchups
Then came the real work: analyzing the matchups. I started with the Thursday Night Football game. I was really thinking one way.
- I looked at their offensive line struggles.
- I checked out their recent injury reports – a key player was questionable.
- I compared their home/away records.
I did this, more or less, for every single game. Some were easier than others, obviously. A few teams are just predictably good (or bad!), but there were some real toss-ups this week.
Making the (Tough) Decisions
This is where the gut feeling comes in. Stats are great, but they don’t tell the whole story. Sometimes, you just gotta go with your instincts, even if the numbers are screaming something else.
I agonized over a couple of games. The over/under, the spread… it’s enough to make your head spin. But I finally settled on my picks, one by one. Some I felt super confident about, others… not so much.
The Waiting Game (and the Results)
Then, it was just a matter of waiting for the games to play out. I watched as many as I could, constantly checking the scores on my phone during the others.
It was a mixed bag, to be honest. I nailed a few of my picks, completely bombed on others, and some were just too close to call until the very last second. But even when it is close, you are hoping the team that you picked can pull it out.
Overall, it wasn’t my best week, but it wasn’t my worst either. That’s the whole fun of it all. I learned a few things, adjusted my spreadsheet a bit, and I’m already gearing up for Week 11. It’s a never-ending cycle, but I’m hooked!
